NFL Week 3 Line Move Plays

We vacillated from one extreme to the other last week with our NFL betting picks. After going 0-4 in Week 1, we went 4-0 with our four selections in Week 2. Green Bay opened as a short favorite over Atlanta by the football betting line, but the Packers closed as an underdog of less than three points. We took the points with the Packers and weren’t stung like moneyline bettors when Green Bay blew a 24-12 lead in the fourth quarter to fall by a point.

Additionally, we nailed both of our best bets in the Seattle-Detroit game. The love for the Lions continues to be too much, so we were able to get a nice price on both the Seahawks and the Over in a game where Seattle won easily, and the game flew over the total. Finally, the Pittsburgh Steelers helped us out on Monday Night Football with an outright win over the Cleveland Browns as a short underdog per the NFL betting odds. Now it’s time to get into the black with this week’s plays.

NFL Week 3 Betting Odds at Caesars Sportsbook

We will see just how legitimate both Atlanta and Detroit are as playoff contenders this week. The Falcons are 2-0, but they took their time putting away a bad Carolina team in Week 1 and needed to come back to beat Green Bay last week. Desmond Ridder doesn’t appear to be a real difference maker at quarterback, yet Atlanta can run the ball with rookie Bijan Robinson behind a solid offensive line and the defense might be able to hold its own for the first time in several seasons.

Detroit had the worst defense in the league last season, and the Lions weren’t great on this side of the ball last week against Seattle. The Seahawks ended the game with 37 points to send the Lions to 1-1. Additionally, Jared Goff has regressed to the quarterback we saw with the Los Angeles Rams and is tough to back as a favorite going forward for a while.

Play: Atlanta +3

This week’s Sunday Night Football game has seen the most line movement to this point. Pittsburgh was originally a short favorite per the NFL betting odds, but money has come in on Las Vegas even though the Raiders don’t have a real home field advantage in Sin City. There will be at least 20,000 Pittsburgh fans at the game, yet sharps love the Raiders on SNF.

People are dismissing Las Vegas too quickly after a narrow win over Denver and a blowout loss at Buffalo in Week 2. The Raiders will have a bit of a rest advantage since Pittsburgh played on Monday Night Football last week, and they will play a Pittsburgh team that has an awful offensive line. The Steelers greatly benefited from two defensive touchdowns in last week’s win over the Browns and have really struggled to move the chains otherwise.

Plays: Las Vegas -2.5

One of the most interesting stories early in the 2023 season is Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers immediately became a contender with Tom Brady, but they were dismissed and thrown into the rubbish heap after TB12 announced his retirement at the end of last season. Tampa brought in Baker Mayfield to replace Brady, and no one expected much out of Mayfield, yet he has played well with two star receivers on the perimeter.

Mike Evans has a massive chip on his shoulder and currently has five catches of 20+ yards and two touchdown receptions. The ground game hasn’t been great, but Chris Godwin is looking good running underneath routes, so the offense is doing enough to win games with a great defense.

Philadelphia is not the juggernaut it was last season. Although the Eagles brought back a lot of starters from last year’s NFC Championship roster, the defense appears to have been figured out somewhat. Also, Jalen Hurts hasn’t been as sharp with defenses adapting to what the Eagles did last season, so there’s a real chance the Bucs win this outright on MNF.

Play: Tampa Bay +5