NFL Week 4 Line Move Plays

It’s been a wild first few weeks with our NFL line move plays. We have either hit all our plays or lost all our plays in each week, so it’s either been boom or bust. These plays went 0-4 in Week 1 and 4-0 in Week 2, but they were 0-3 ATS in Week 3. To make matters worse, only one of the plays was somewhat close too.

Atlanta never had a chance against Detroit and failed to move the ball significantly up and down the field. Tampa Bay was clearly outclassed by Philadelphia on Monday Night Football too with the Buccaneers falling behind 25-3 in the fourth quarter. The only game that was close was the Sunday Night Football game between Las Vegas and Pittsburgh, but the Steelers were able to hold on and get the win and the cover per the NFL betting odds.

NFL Week 4 Betting Odds at Caesars Sportsbook

Washington +9
Philadelphia -9
Total 43

There has been decent movement on both the side and the total in this game. Philadelphia opened as a 7.5-point favorite by the football betting odds, but that number quickly moved to nine as bettors jumped on six-point teasers involving the Eagles. The total has dropped by 2.5 points as well from 45.5 points to 43 points as the Commanders were fortunate to not be shut out last week.

Washington is 2-1, but the team’s two wins have come against two of the worst teams in the NFL in Arizona and Denver. The Commanders were blown out at home by the Buffalo Bills last week, so it’s hard to have a ton of faith in them. Meanwhile, Philly is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS after last week’s win over Tampa Bay on MNF.

The Under was a good play, but the value is largely gone with the line move, so we are going to take the underdogs here. Washington is getting almost 10 points on a short week for Philly, and the Commanders will want to put forth a better showing than they did last week.

Play: Washington +9

Minnesota -4
Carolina +4
Total 46.5

We’ve seen movement on the side and total in this game. Minnesota was initially a three-point favorite by the opening NFL betting line, but that number has been pushed up to four as many bettors think the Vikes will finally put a stop to their three-game losing streak here. Carolina is also 0-3, and the Panthers appear likely to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season.

The fear for betting on Minnesota is that this team has a propensity to play close games. We saw the Vikes go 11-0 in one-score games last year, but they are 0-3 in one-score tilts through three weeks this season. Still, they are significantly more talented than the Panthers, so the Vikings will be the play on Sunday afternoon even after the line moved up by a point.

Plays: Minnesota -4

Kansas City -8.5
New York Jets +8.5
Total 41.5

A lot of sharp money has come in on the New York Jets ahead of their Sunday Night Football showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs. There was a lot of excitement for this game in the preseason when it looked to receive top billing with Aaron Rodgers against Patrick Mahomes, but Rodgers’ injury has made this game less entertaining. The Chiefs are now favored by two scores per the NFL betting odds.

Kansas City is 2-1 and coming off a blowout win of Chicago last week. The Chiefs annihilated the lowly Bears 41-10, putting the game away at the end of the third quarter before Chicago scored 10 points in the final frame.

These New York Jets are still sharp on defense, but their problems on offense will keep them from being overly competitive in this game. Mahomes will slowly take over throughout the evening, while the Jets will continue to sputter on offense with Zach Wilson under center. The Chiefs have a Top 5 defense, so that has us willing to go against the sharp money and back Kansas City on the road while laying more than a TD.

Play: Kansas City -8.5