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The Pittsburgh Steelers will attempt to lock down AFC North bragging rights for the first time since 2019 in Week 16 betting action when they invade the Charm City looking to sweep the season rivalry from the Baltimore Ravens for the second time in as many seasons. Mike Tomlin’s troops failed to get a leg up on their hated rival last week after getting skunked in the City of Brotherly love by the Eagles, while John Harbaugh’s troops clawed to within a game of the division lead by going into Gotham and covering the lofty NFL odds in a one-sided 35-14 triumph.
PROLINE+ opened this rematch with the host Ravens laying 5-points and the total lined 47. Current action reports find 60+ percent of the bets and money going the way of the road dogs, but linemakers have withheld adjusting the point spread and instead aligned heavier juice to Baltimore. The total market has taken on a major dose of reverse line movement with it down to 44.5 even though the over has been aligned with around 80% of the tickets and booked handle. Pittsburgh stands 8-2 straight up (SU) and 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in the last 10 regular season meetings with the under paying out eight straight times and an average of just 31 points hitting the board.
Reduced juice betting is one of the best ways for any sports bettor to save money and far too many people don’t take advantage of it. If you are not playing at a sportsbook that offers reduced juice betting then you are simply giving away money.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens NFL Same Game Parlay:
Since the Steelers scored the ugly 18-16 outright win when these division rivals first hooked up back in Week 11, Russell Wilson and his mates have split their last four games against the Browns (19-24), Bengals (44-38), Browns (27-14), and Eagles (13-27). We rode the fade train in that loss at Philadelphia and came out easy winners after Pittsburgh pulled up lame in the two-touchdown defeat. More importantly, one of its biggest defensive weapons, T.J. Watt, suffered an ankle injury that has his availability listed as questionable for this week’s showdown with the Ravens. Should he be unable to go or play limited reps, it will open the field up for Baltimore’s offense to make hay against an undermanned Steelers defense that’s proven to be a bit more susceptible over the last month. As great a season it’s been to this point, it’s entirely possible the voodoo that allowed the team to come up with a number of wins it shouldn’t have has run out. Should George Pickens continue to watch on from the sideline, the offense will be down a sorely needed weapon that could exploit Baltimore’s recently improved but highly susceptible pass defense (#31).
The Ravens returned from the bye rejuvenated and proceeded to administer a 35-14 whitewashing of the overmatched GMEN. Lamar Jackson played to a 154.6 QB rating by way of completing 21 of 25 passes for 290 yards and 5 TD passes. The showing allowed for him to make some headway on the odds to win the MVP Award over at PROLINE+, but it’s Josh Allen’s to lose at this point. Regardless, Baltimore’s passing game looked sensational in its gridiron return which allowed for Derrick Henry to take a back seat and rest up for this pivotal clash. The King has been one of the few running backs to solve the Steelers top-5 ranked run D after getting it for 65 yards on 5.0 yards per carry and a touchdown in the first go-round. Through seven career starts against the Steelers, Jackson has struggled evidenced by his 66.7 QB rating and 5:8 TD/INT ratio. As much LJ would love to sit back and pick apart Pittsburgh’s lesser pass D (#22), Henry will need to be a big part of the game plan in hopes of tiring out a Steelers front that could be down its most lethal weapon.
We cashed in on a profitable two-leg same-game parlay by pairing the under and the Steelers moneyline when these rivals clashed in Pittsburg back in Week 11. Despite being outgained 329-303 and failing to convert any of their four red-zone opportunities, the Steelers capitalized on three Ravens turnovers and controlled the clock, winning the time-of-possession battle by 11+ minutes to pull out the ugly 18-16 triumph. This time, with T.J. Watt either sidelined or playing at less than full strength, it’s hard to envision Baltimore being as turnover-prone. The Ravens rank fourth in fewest giveaways this season and have averaged just 0.3 turnovers over their last three games—a stark contrast to Week 11’s miscues. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry healthy and poised for a big game, and Pittsburgh’s recent luck potentially running dry, I’m flipping the script for the rematch. This time, I’m backing Baltimore and the over in a Week 16 same-game parlay, despite the usual trend of these AFC North rivals playing to low scoring slogs.
- BALTIMORE RAVENS -5.5
- PITTSBURGH/BALTIMORE OVER 44.5
