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February 4, 2025
Super Bowl LIX Running Back Prop Picks – Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
February 4, 2025
The most scrutinized position in the NFL is quarterback. Good ones win games and push teams into the playoffs. Great ones, like Tom Brady and Joe Montana, lead their franchises to multiple Super Bowl titles. The Kansas City Chiefs have one of the greats in Patrick Mahomes, who now has his team on the brink of history. With a win in Super Bowl LIX, Kansas City would become the first team in NFL history to capture three straight titles. Standing in Mahomes’ way is Jalen Hurts, who fell short when these teams clashed in Super Bowl LVII. Now, the Eagles quarterback has a chance at redemption as the two powerhouses cross paths again in the biggest game of the season.
Let’s break down the quarterbacks’ prop offerings at Caesars Sportsbook and seek out some value as they prepare to face off against the Super Bowl LIX odds from the Caesars Superdome on Sunday, February 9, with kickoff set for 6:30 p.m. ET.
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Bet Super Bowl LIX at Caesars Sportsbook
When Hurts run up against the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII, he posted a 103.4 QB rating, completing 27 of 38 passes for 304 yards with a 1:0 TD/INT ratio. He also carried the ball 15 times for 70 yards and found the end zone three times. The following season, he helped the Eagles avenge their Super Bowl loss with a 21-17 outright win at Arrowhead as 2.5-point underdogs—a game heavily impacted by weather conditions. While Hurts threw for just 150 yards with a 0:1 TD/INT ratio, he made his mark on the ground, scoring twice on 12 carries, though they totaled only 29 yards.
Super Bowl LIX prop bettors appear to believe Jalen Hurts will struggle on the ground but find success through the air. His rushing yards prop has dropped from 40.5 to 36.5, while his passing yards prop has been bet up from 210.5 to 212.5. I tend to agree. You can bet Steve Spagnuolo will scheme to contain Hurts and Saquon Barkley on the ground, forcing the Philadelphia Eagles to win through the air. Additionally, Hurts’ pass attempts have been bet up from 26.5 to 27.5, while his pass completions remain at 18.5, with plus-money juice on the over.
As much as Philadelphia would love to impose its will in the run game, that’s easier said than done against a Chiefs defense that has allowed just one 100-yard rusher all season. The Eagles also face the possibility of a negative game script being the underdog in this matchup. With Kansas City’s defense more vulnerable against the pass (#18), Hurts’ arm may be Philly’s best path to victory.
- Jalen Hurts Super Bowl LIX QB Prop Pick: Over 18.5 Pass Completions (+100)
By his standards, Patrick Mahomes had a down year. He failed to surpass 4,000 passing yards for the first time in his career, matched his career-low in touchdown passes (26), and posted a 93.5 passer rating—his lowest since becoming a starter—while averaging a career-low 245.5 passing yards per game. Despite that, the two-time defending champs still won 15 regular-season games and secured the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Against the Eagles in the Super Bowl, Mahomes threw for 182 yards but completed 21 of 27 passes with three touchdowns while adding six carries for 44 yards. The Week 11 rematch the following season played out differently, as he attempted 43 passes, completing 24 for two touchdowns and an interception, while also rushing six times for 38 yards. His numbers could have looked much better if not for a crucial dropped touchdown by Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the final minutes.
Philadelphia has done a solid job containing Mahomes in recent matchups, and that trend could continue in Super Bowl LIX. The Eagles will likely apply heavy interior pressure, forcing Mahomes to evade the pocket—something he’s done willingly, as evidenced by his 57 rushing yards on 18 carries this postseason. Prop bettors seem to agree, as his rushing yards prop has risen from 29.5 to 30.5, despite his rush attempts dropping from 6.5 to 5.5 with heavy juice on the over.
- Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl LIX QB Prop Pick: Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
