Last Thursday’s MLB Best Bets took a big chunk out of our bankroll over at BetRivers Sportsbook after failing to cash any of the three made investments. The Padres failed to show up in the finale against the Cubs losing 5-2 as decided road chalk. We failed cashing in on the F5 under in the first matchup between Dylan Cease and Shane McClanahan and suffered the same result in the rematch only this time the position was blown out of the water in the second inning as opposed to the bottom of the fifth. We then closed the wretched showing out with a loss on the Texas Rangers in the opener of their four-game series with the Yankees. They would go on to win each of the next three! May the 4th be with us for Thursday’s trio of best bets – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
YTD: 46-40-3 ($545)
LW: 12-10 ($213)
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
We now have a five-start database to pull from when it comes to O’s right-hander Grayson Rodriguez. The results by and large haven’t been pretty with the best offense opposed to date coming in the form of the Texas Rangers (No. 7 OPS). Even so, the rookie has failed to exceed five innings in any start and carries a 4.07 ERA into start No. 6. He’s giving up 8.5 hits per nine innings which is above league average (9.6), but his 4.1 BB/9 has been a killer ultimately resulting in bloated pitch counts that forced him off the bum early.
In facing the Royals No. 29 ranked OPS, he’ll get the benefit of throwing at a batting lineup that owns the second worst walk rate in the Bigs (6.7%). Most importantly, it strikes out better than 25 percent of the time which only finds it ranked ahead of the A’s, Twins, Tigers, Mariners, and Giants in K rate. Having surpassed his K prop in each of his five previous starts, I’ll push the envelope here and expect another excellent showing. Rodriguez is averaging 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings! His K prop has been in the 4.5 to 5.5 range but I wouldn’t at all be shocked if BetRivers oddsmakers bumped it up to 6.5 for this one. Regardless, I’m still comfortable hitting the over with the belief this outing represents his most dominant to date!
BET OVER GRAYSON RODIRGUEZ K PROP + PITCHING OUTS PROP
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies
Sadly, the Jose Urena experiment is over after the ineffective right-hander was DFA’d last week. With German Marquez hitting the season-long IL this week, Colorado is scrambling for starting pitching. That opens the door for Connor Seabold to come out of the pen and start building his arm strength for a potential gig in the starting rotation. Nothing about his stat profile leads me to believe the results in this start will be much different from what Urena was able to offer.
In seven total appearances for Colorado the 27-year old is the owner of a 5.27 ERA in allowing 18 hits (1 HR) and 8 ER through 13.2 total innings of work. Left-handed batters have gotten the best of him over the course of his career evidenced by a .390 BAA, .471 OBP, .695 SLG, and 1.166 OPS. While a bit better in every stat category this season, it’s still early. Milwaukee has a trio of lefty bats that should tee off here in Christian Yelich, Jesse Winker, and Rowdy Tellez which leads me to believe the Brew Crew hang a crooked number on their way out of Coors.
BET BREWERS TEAM TOTAL OVER
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
We’ll close the afternoon out with what I expect to be a pitcher’s duel between Max Fried and Jesus Luzardo in the finale between these NL East rivals. The Braves staff ace has been every bit as dominant as his 0.45 ERA and 0.90 WHIP suggests. Through four starts, the left-hander has conceded 14 hits (0 HR) and 1 ER while amassing 18 K and only issuing four free passes through 20 combined innings of work. Since giving up 2 runs to the Nats in the first five innings of his 2023 debut, the southpaw hasn’t given up a single run in the first five innings of his last three starts! On top of that, he allowed a grand total of 1 ER to the Marlins in a pair of starts last season (11 IP).
While the Marlins have been much better against LHP this season ranking No. 8 in OPS, this assignment figures to be a major challenge. The Braves have ripped the cover off the ball against lefties to the tune of 4.9 runs per game (No. 11) and .836 OPS (No. 3), but I’m still a firm believer in 2023 being Jesus Luzardo’s breakout campaign. He’s done nothing to get me off that bandwagon to this point of the MLB betting season. He just fared extremely well against another team that crushes left-handers in the Cubs last time out, and should be up for this challenge after allowing 5 ER with a 26:7 K/BB ratio through 16 IP against the Braves last season.
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